Each year, film enthusiasts and industry insiders closely watch award season unfold in anticipation of the Academy Awards. Among the numerous categories, the Best Sound Oscar has remained one of the most intriguing. With the merging of sound mixing and sound editing into a single category in 2020, predicting the winner has become even more complex.
Two major industry guilds—the Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) and the Cinema Audio Society (CAS)—continue to honor sound work separately. But just how reliable are their top honorees in predicting the eventual Oscar winner?
A History of Merging Sound Categories
Prior to 2020, the Academy distinguished between Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing, awarding Oscars separately in each category. However, industry professionals consistently debated the differentiation, leading the Academy to streamline them into a single Best Sound award.
The change altered prediction formulas as well. In the years prior to the merge, one guild’s top winner might align with one Oscar category, while the other lined up with a different one. Now, with only one Oscar for sound, does either MPSE or CAS hold more sway in forecasting the winner?
MPSE vs. CAS: Who’s More Predictive?
Both guilds have strong track records, but they measure sound achievements differently.
- The Cinema Audio Society (CAS) awards focus solely on sound mixing, particularly performance in live-action, animation, and documentary categories.
- The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) distributes multiple Golden Reel Awards recognizing achievements in dialogue/ADR, effects/Foley, and music editing.
The correlation between these honors and Oscar winners has been inconsistent.
Recent Trends
Looking at the past five years, CAS and MPSE have been reasonably predictive—but not flawlessly so.
- In 2024, MPSE awarded Oppenheimer for dialogue/ADR and Foley, while CAS named it the best-mixed feature. However, the Oscar went to The Zone of Interest, breaking the trend of CAS and Oscar alignment.
- The three years prior (2021-2023) showcased a near one-to-one match between CAS winners and Oscar winners—with Top Gun: Maverick, Dune, and Sound of Metal sweeping both.
- Before that, MPSE and CAS often aligned with separate sound Oscar categories, making their predictions murkier.
With MPSE splitting its focus across multiple awards and CAS providing just one primary honor, historical trends suggest CAS holds a slightly stronger predictive edge under the new rules—but exceptions remain.
This Year’s Nominees: What Do the Guilds Suggest?
The 2025 Oscar race for Best Sound is filled with heavyweights. This year’s nominees include:
- A Complete Unknown – Nominated by CAS and received MPSE noms for dialogue/ADR and music editing.
- Dune: Part Two – A frontrunner, with CAS and all three key MPSE noms.
- Emilia Pérez – Overlooked by CAS but nominated by MPSE in music editing.
- Wicked – Picked up CAS and MPSE nominations for dialogue/ADR and music editing.
- The Wild Robot – A wildcard as the only animated entrant, earning nominations at both CAS (animation) and MPSE (feature animation sound editing).
The strong presence of Dune: Part Two across all categories implies industry-wide respect for its technical sound work. However, if recent history is any guide, the Academy tends to favor Best Picture nominees, giving additional weight to contenders like A Complete Unknown and Wicked.
Does Genre Influence the Outcome?
It’s worth noting another trend—films focusing heavily on sound as a narrative tool tend to fare better at the Academy Awards.
For example:
- Sound of Metal (2021) depicted a drummer’s loss of hearing, making sound an integral storytelling device.
- The Zone of Interest (2024) utilized sound in stark, unconventional ways to enhance its historical setting.
This year, Dune: Part Two could benefit from its immersive sound design, while A Complete Unknown, Wicked, and Emilia Pérez—all of which are musically driven films—might attract voters who connect with their incorporation of music in storytelling.
Animated Films: Rare Contenders for the Sound Oscar
A particularly interesting inclusion this year is The Wild Robot, a rare animated nominee. The last animated film to receive a sound nomination was Soul in 2021, which also won MPSE and CAS in its respective animation categories.
While Soul lost the overall Oscar for sound (to Sound of Metal), its recognition at MPSE and CAS hints that The Wild Robot could be a dark horse in this race.
Final Prediction: Who Takes Home the Oscar?
Looking at guild overlaps, Best Picture nominations, and genre influence, the likely frontrunners are:
- Dune: Part Two – Strongest across all guilds, massive scale, and a sequel to a previous sound winner.
- A Complete Unknown – A film centered around music, historically a strong Oscar sound category contender.
- Wicked – Its musical elements could attract general Academy voters.
- The Wild Robot – Following Soul’s past path, but animated films typically struggle in this category.
- Emilia Pérez – A musical but lacking key CAS support, making it a long shot.
If history repeats itself, Dune: Part Two seems best positioned for victory. But will Academy voters follow the CAS trend, or surprise us as they did last year?
Only time will tell.
Conclusion
While both MPSE and CAS awards offer useful insights, they are not perfect crystal balls. However, recent history indicates that CAS winners align more frequently with Oscar winners under the unified category.
With heavy competition this year, all eyes are on Dune: Part Two’s ability to maintain its sweep—with musical contenders A Complete Unknown and Wicked posing interesting challenges.
One thing is for certain: the Academy’s decision will keep sound enthusiasts talking long after the last award is handed out.